VP
VotePapa
Markets/🏛 Politics/general

Who will win Kenya's 2027 Presidential Election?

🇰🇪Kenyageneral
$19,675.35 vol 50 traders 171 trades
Closes in
494D
00H
24M
36S

Probability Timeline

VotePapa
Mar 15, 12 PMMar 15, 09 PMMar 16, 06 AMMar 20, 06 PMMar 21, 08 PMMar 25, 04 PMMar 31, 12 AMMar 31, 04 PM0%25%50%75%100%
$19,675.35 total volume

Outcomes

William RutoWilliam Ruto
8.7%
Fred Matiang'iFred Matiang'i
10.3%
Kalonzo MusyokaKalonzo Musyoka
38.9%
Rigathi GachaguaRigathi Gachagua
6.5%
David MaragaDavid Maraga
8.0%
Martha KaruaMartha Karua
8.9%
Other
18.7%

  1. 1This market resolves to the candidate officially sworn in as President of Kenya by the Chief Justice following the 2027 general election, whether after the first round or a run-off
  2. 2If no candidate wins outright in the first round, a run-off between the top two candidates is held within 30 days under Article 138(5). The market resolves on whoever is sworn in following the run-off.
  3. 3If the Supreme Court nullifies the result under Article 140 and orders a fresh election, the market is paused and resolves on whoever is sworn in after the fresh election.
  4. 4The swearing-in ceremony is administered by the Chief Justice under Article 141 of the Constitution and is the single unambiguous resolution trigger for this market. The IEBC declaration alone does not trigger resolution — only the swearing-in does.
  5. 5This market resolves on the swearing-in only. Subsequent events after swearing-in — including impeachment, resignation, death, or any court challenge — do not affect resolution.
  6. 6If no swearing-in has occurred by the maximum resolution date, the market is voided and all positions are refunded in full

Settlement Fee: A 7.5% fee applies to profits when this market resolves in your favor. No fee is charged if you don't profit.

SELLYESWilliam Ruto@cnjenga254
$40.2306:40 PM
BUYYESKalonzo Musyoka@estherchebet
$5006:40 PM
BUYYESOther@ireneach_
$229.0806:39 PM
SELLYESDavid Maraga@abarasa99
$70.4106:39 PM
BUYYESOther@krotich_
$10006:39 PM
SELLYESKalonzo Musyoka@janetati
$84.2506:39 PM
BUYNOKalonzo Musyoka@jacqwan_ke
$84.6306:39 PM
SELLYESDavid Maraga@flonyak
$121.1506:39 PM
BUYYESDavid Maraga@abarasa99
$92.8906:38 PM
SELLYESDavid Maraga@dianacher
$312.0706:38 PM
BUYNODavid Maraga@ann_nyawira
$10006:38 PM
SELLYESRigathi Gachagua@paulnekesa
$107.6706:38 PM
BUYYESMartha Karua@stevemusy
$67.2206:38 PM
BUYYESKalonzo Musyoka@faithw254
$5006:38 PM
SELLYESKalonzo Musyoka@cyn_mumbi
$155.7506:38 PM

About this Market

Kenya's 2027 presidential election is scheduled for 10th August 2027 amid a dynamic political landscape featuring incumbent President William Ruto facing opposition challenges. Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has emerged as a key opposition figure calling for Ruto's defeat on August 10, 2027, while ODM factions debate candidates and former President Uhuru Kenyatta positions himself as a potential kingmaker. Early declared candidates and regional influences add complexity to the race.

Market Info

Category

🏛 Politics

Country

🇰🇪Kenya

Market Type

multi

Volume

$19,675.35

Closes

Aug 9, 2027

Created

Mar 15, 2026

Resolution Source

Primary: The official swearing-in ceremony of the President of Kenya, administered by the Chief Justice,as broadcast live local TV stations  (eg: KBC, KTN, NTV, Citizen TV.) and as confirmed by the President's Office at president.go.ke.

Related Markets

Will Babu Owino run with a DCP ticket for Nairobi Governor in the 2027 Kenyan General Election?

🏛 Politics$15,271.31 vol
35.8%